Did Taylor Swift Save Us from a Recession?
On March 17th, 2023 thirty-three-year-old singer/songwriter & pop icon Taylor Swift kicked off the sixth headlining concert tour of her career, The Eras Tour. And as I write this (on August 1st) she still has 16 days left before its final show. Her tour includes 131 concerts across 17 states and five continents. The totality of Swift's U.S. tour alone is estimated to generate around $4.6 billion in total consumer spending. That’s more money than the GDP (gross domestic product) of 35 countries.
That same month here in the US, the news was full of stories regarding the so-called impending recession. But despite concerns over the banking system collapsing, global equities rose by 3.1% in March. In its battle against inflation, The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates throughout the Spring, but it was slowing down, and the U.S. job market remained strong. The economy continued to stay above the red, with a modest first-quarter GDP growth. And by adding another 339,000 jobs in May alone, the U.S. hit a historically low unemployment rate of 3.7%.
“For this year, given these current jobs numbers, it’s hard to see a recession. Increasingly, the odds of a recession this year are fading”. - Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics told CNN on Friday, June 2nd.
Also on June 2nd, Ms. Swift was performing at Soldier Field, the first of 3 concerts in Chicago. The city broke a new record for most hotel rooms filled in its history, with over 44,000 rooms occupied each of the three nights and stirring up $39 MILLION IN HOTEL REVENUE ALONE. Later that month, Swift announced her plans to extend her tour with international dates in South America, Asia, Europe, Australia, and more.
By mid-July, the central bank released its Beige Book, a publication about current economic trends, where the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported on the strongest growth of hotel bookings since the beginning of the pandemic. All with the help of a boast in travel and tourism on Swift's show dates in the city. Cincinnati officials even credited Swift’s tour with helping local hotels, restaurants, and shops gross tens of millions of dollars. And with economists now able to look back at the first part of 2023, what they saw was not a recession, but in fact a still sturdy jobs market, consumer & corporate spending remaining robust, and even the housing markets showing signs of stability. Inflation was cooling and people were noticing.
This leaves us right where we are now, the first day of August. According to the tour date list for the Eras Tour, Swift and her team are on a 4-day break in California between their Santa Clara and Los Angeles shows. When I googled “recession 2023” only one article comes up for today's date with the headline:
“The U.S. likely heading for a recession in end-2023 or early 2024: JPMorgan’s Jonathon Lang”.
He blames tightening credit conditions now.
It’s been a bumpy few years for the country’s economy. But the United States is still ranked at the top spot. Its current net worth is about $123.8 trillion, including assets of $269.6 trillion and debts of $145.8 trillion. And, while Swift’s tour is estimated to have generated over $4 billion by the time it ends, the overall economy doesn’t necessarily benefit. The money being spent by fans isn’t going to areas like investments and banking, but instead to restaurants, hotels, attractions, stores, and travel, which is still a great thing for our economy and our country. Her tour has saved businesses that have been struggling since the pandemic and churned in money spent on taxes that increase each host city’s revenue.
We may still be looking ahead and seeing signs of a recession for our country even after Taylor Swift’s tour is over, but there is no denying that this woman has the power to make positive, long-lasting impressions everywhere she goes. And as wonderful as it would be for the few billion dollars spent by the American people to see Taylor live, to save us from a recession, even this Queen can’t get us OUT OF THE WOODS.
-Sylvia McCormick Burns, Oakview Wealth Solutions co/founder